Tag Archives: italy

11/01/2016 — New M4.9 earthquake strikes Central Italy — Forecast to occur + Warnings issued

A new noteworthy earthquake has struck Central Italy yet again.

November 1, 2016 – another sizable earthquake measuring M4.9 struck near the swarm location by Norcia Italy.

m4-9-earthquake-nov-1-2016-italy

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On October 31, 2016 multiple warnings were issued (again) for Central Italy.   The warnings told locals to be on watch for upper M4.0 to M5.0 earthquake activity to resume today (Nov. 1st).

See the warning issued at 10pm central time (USA) on October 31, 2016 here:

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As the warning in the above video said, a new round of pressure would enter into Turkey and Greece, then to be followed immediately by an upper M4.0 (M4.9 to M5.0) earthquake.

As the seismic forecast called for, the movement has now struck central Italy , and it moved in the exact location we were expecting to move along the plate boundary.

The above video fully explains the “why” behind this M4.9 (M5.0) earthquake striking, and what to expect over the next 24-48 hours.

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Information on this earthquake comes from the USGS:

2016-11-01 07:56:40 UTC
43.002°N   13.148°E
10.0 km depth
Magnitude/uncertainty 4.9 mb± 0.1
Location/uncertainty 43.002°N 13.148°E± 5.0 km
Depth/uncertainty 10.0 km± 1.8
Origin Time
Number of Stations
Number of Phases 91
Minimum Distance 6.2 km (0.06°)
Travel Time Residual 1.24 s
Azimuthal Gap 34°
FE Region CENTRAL ITALY (381)

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10/30/2016 — Largest earthquake in 30+ years strikes Central Italy — M7.1 (M6.6) and swarm hits the forecast area

A significant M7.1 (M6.6 revised) earthquake, and large swarm of subsequent M4.0+ follow up earthquakes has struck central Italy directly inside of the forecast / warned location.

earthquake-italy-m6-6-oct-30-2016

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This is the largest earthquake to strike Italy since 1980.

It has been over 30 years since this size magnitude has occurred, making this a “rare” event in itself.

A series of earthquake warnings was issued on October 28, 2016 , calling for M6.8 to M7.8 seismic activity to strike this exact location in central Italy.

See the publicly posted warning(s) here:

Here is a much more detailed warning for Italy from the same day (October 28, 2016 – 2 days prior to this large earthquake):

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Move forward to October 30, 2016 – early in the morning Italian time (740am), and the expected large earthquake struck the exact warned location.

2016-10-30 06:40:19 UTC
42.855°N   13.088°E
10.0 km depth

 

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As this large earthquake struck, many homes and businesses were completely destroyed.

The famous Benedictine Basilica at the center of town was wiped out as an example of the intensity of this event.

A picture from google earth shows what the Church looked like in August 2011:

italy-church-aug-2011-pre-earthquake

Now, after this earthquake on October 30, 2016, the church lay in ruins:

italy-earthquake-oct-30-2016-church-destroyed-damage

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This widespread destruction was due to the shallow location of the earthquake, and the proximity to the plate boundary (due East along the Eastern coast of Italy).

As shown in past videos, and website posts, the plate boundary passes directly through this location in central Italy.  The plate boundary (red line) has been put into serious flux due to incoming pressure from Turkey, and Greece.

plate-boundary-italy-oct-30-2016

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There is a silver lining to this tragedy.

The warnings we issued were mentioned on BBC news by Janet Fullerlove while reporting on the earthquake out of central Italy!

Several people across the facebook group (dutchsinse italia), as well as Janet Fullerlove, and William Pacetti, were able to spread word around their areas as much as possible, I think this made a difference!

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Special thanks to Italian viewers Janet Fullerlove , and William Pacetti who spread the warnings across the area . Thanks to their word of mouth, people slept in their cars the night before, and were mostly prepared for this earthquake to strike.

We now know for certain that injuries were AVERTED, and lives were possibly saved thanks to the warnings getting out to the people in time.

Much love to all my viewers + readers , those across the Dutchsinse Italy facebook group, and others across social media who helped spread the warning for Italy in the days leading up to this unfortunate natural disaster.

No doubt William, Janet, and the facebook group are responsible for saving lives / preventing injuries during this earthquake!  You are to be thanked, commended, and loved for what you did to help.

This is William Pacetti, one of the caring people who helped spread the word to be prepared.

I hopefully will be able to travel over to Italy in the near future (2017  or sooner?) to meet these viewers, and possibly hold an open public meeting to teach anyone who attends how to forecast an earthquake.

If you want to know the basics on “how to” forecast an earthquake, watch my free 1 hour long video showing the detailed steps involved:

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